Book: The Practical Values of Space Exploration

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From the beginning it has been recognized that space exploration, the
research connected therewith, and the ability to operate therein is of
more than passing interest to the military.

Congress recognized the fact when it passed the National Aeronautics and
Space Act of 1958 and directed that "activities peculiar to or primarily
associated with the development of weapons systems, military operations,
or the defense of the United States * * * shall be the responsibility
of, and shall be directed by, the Department of Defense."[8] In the
amendments to the Space Act proposed in 1960, this directive was
strengthened: "The Department of Defense shall undertake such activities
in space, and such research and development connected therewith, as may
be necessary for the defense of the United States."[9]

It is possible to argue, and indeed it has been argued, that ballistic
missiles such as IRBM's and ICBM's are not really "space" weapons, that
they are simply an extension of the traditional art of artillery. For
the purposes of this report, however, the argument appears to be largely
a semantic one. Such missiles do traverse space, they are guided through
space, and they employ the same engines and principles which are
presently used for purposes of scientific space exploration. While more
advanced "space" weapons may evolve in the future, the missile as we
know it today cannot very well be divorced from our thinking about space
and its practical uses.

Going on this assumption, and casting an eye in the direction of the
Iron Curtain, it is obvious that the Soviet Union is going all-out to
exploit space for military purposes.

Military men have known for years that the tremendously powerful booster
which the Soviets have been using to launch their massive sputniks was
originally designed to carry the primitive heavy version of the A-bomb
across continents.

If there was ever doubt of the extent to which the Soviets intend to
make space a selected medium for military purposes it was erased when
Premier Khrushchev made his address to the Supreme Soviet early in 1960.
He commented in part:

Our state has at its disposal powerful rocket equipment. The
military air force and navy have lost their previous importance in
view of the modern development of military equipment. This type of
armament is not being reduced but replaced. Almost the entire
military air force is being replaced by rocket equipment. We have
by now sharply cut, and it seems will continue sharply to cut and
even discontinue the manufacture of bombers and other obsolete
equipment. In the navy, the submarine fleet assumes great
importance, while surface ships can no longer play the part they
once did. In our country the armed forces have been to a
considerable extent transferred to rocket and nuclear arms. These
arms are being perfected and will continue to be perfected until
they are banned.[10]

While it is difficult to assess the actual extent of the Soviet
preoccupation with missiles, it has been reported that the Russians are
building upward of 100 IRBM and ICBM bases to be manned by about 200,000
men. Most of these, at least the intermediate range bases, are said to
be along Russia's Baltic coast, in East Germany, in the southern Ukraine
and in the Carpathian Mountains.[11]

In any event, the space age is clearly "here" so far as the military are
concerned, and U.S. forces--particularly since the development of the
much lighter atomic warheads--have been likewise diligent in their space
efforts. This is because many military minds are now agreed that:

We are moving inevitably into a time of astropower. We face a
threat beyond imagination, should events ever lead to open conflict
in a world of hypersonic velocities and a raging atom chained as
our slave. We must be strong, we must be able to change to meet
change. What may come against our beloved America will not be
signaled by one light from the North Church steeple, if they come
by land, or two, if they come by sea. Never again. They will come
through space, and their light of warning will be the blinding
terror of a thermonuclear fireball.[12]

It is important to note, in connection with military matters, that pure
rocket power, is not the only avenue to success in space use. The
American Atlas missile, for example, which can carry a nuclear warhead
and which operates on considerably less thrust than the powerful Soviet
boosters thus far demonstrated, has nevertheless shown the capability of
negotiating a 9,000-mile trek and landing in the target area. This is
about 1,500 miles farther than any Soviet shots revealed to the public
in the 2-1/2-year period following the first sputnik. It is also a
sufficient range to permit reaching almost any likely target on the
globe.

From the military point of view, the meaning thus brought out is that
sophistication of missiles together with reliability and ease of
handling is more important than pure power.

When we begin to consider both the civil and military aspects of space
use in the decades ahead, however, rocket power acquires fresh
importance. It is, as one expert says, "the key to space supremacy."[13]
Not only is much heavier thrust required for ventures farther out into
space, but probably thrust developed by different means as well, such as
atom, ion, or even photon power.

This suggests the possibilities of weapons which today are considered to
be "way out" or "blue sky"--in short, farfetched. Yet they include the
ideas of men with solid scientific training as well as vision. For
example, Germany's great rocket pioneer, Prof. Hermann Oberth, "has
proposed that a giant mirror in space (some 60 miles in diameter) could
be used militarily to burn an enemy country on Earth. For peaceful
purposes, however, such a space mirror could be used to melt icebergs
and alter temperatures."[14] Another reputable German scientist who has
been working for a number of years on photon (electromagnetic ray) power
as a source of propulsion, declares that if such power is possible so is
"the idea of a 'death ray,' a weapon beam which burns or melts targets,
such as enemy missiles, on which it is trained. The idea has been
familiar in science fiction for a long time and has been scorned often
enough. Yet, if the photon rocket is possible so is the ray gun."[15]

Still another proposal, one made to the Congress, involves use of the
Moon as a military base. "It could, at some future date, be used as a
secure base to deter aggression. Lunar launching sites, perhaps located
on the far side of the Moon, which could never be viewed directly from
the Earth, could launch missiles earthward. They could be guided
accurately during flight and to impact, and thus might serve peaceful
ends by deterring any would-be aggressor."[16]

In spite of the fact that ideas such as these are being sponsored by
competent and responsible scientists, other scientists equally competent
and responsible sometimes cry them down as impractical, impossible or
even childish. One engineer, for instance, describes maneuverable manned
space vehicles as having "no military value," bases on the Moon as
having no military or communications use, and the idea of high velocity
photon-power for space travel as "a fantasy strictly for immature
science fiction." He also characterizes the reconnaissance satellite,
which U.S. military authorities have long since programmed and even
launched, as being "definitely submarginal * * *. A fraction of the cost
of a reconnaissance satellite could accomplish wonders in conventional
information gathering."[17]

Controversies such as these are difficult for the person who is neither
a scientist nor a military expert to judge. One is inclined to recall,
though, the treatment received by General Billy Mitchell for his
devotion to nonconventional bombing concepts; the fact that the utility
of the rocket as developed by America's pioneer, Dr. Robert H. Goddard,
was generally ignored during World War II; the fact that it took a
personal letter from Albert Einstein to President Roosevelt to get the
Manhattan Project underway.

Yet today the bomber, the missile, and the nuclear weapon form the
backbone of our military posture.

In other words, history seems to support the proposition that no matter
how remote or unlikely new discoveries and approaches may first appear,
the military eventually finds a way to use them.

Will it be any different with space exploration?


OUR POSITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

Like the military values of space research, the practical value of space
exploration in terms of world prestige has also been acknowledged almost
from the beginning of the satellite era.

The White House, in its initial statement on the national space program,
declared:

It is useful to distinguish among (the) factors which give
importance, urgency, and inevitability to the advancement of space
technology (one of which) is the factor of national prestige. To be
strong and bold in space technology will enhance the prestige of
the United States among the peoples of the world and create added
confidence in our scientific, technological, industrial, and
military strength.[18]

Only recently, however, has the full impact and meaning of this phase of
our national space program come to be widely recognized. It has been
stated, perhaps in its most forceful and succinct form, by an American
official in a unique position to know. The Director of the U.S.
Information Agency, part of whose job is to keep track of the esteem in
which America is held abroad, has told Congress:

Our space program may be considered as a measure of our vitality
and our ability to compete with a formidable rival and as a
criterion of our ability to maintain technological eminence worthy
of emulation by other peoples.[19]

This element of space exploration takes on particular significance in
light of the current international struggle to influence the minds of
men, in light of the rising tide of nationalism throughout the world,
and in light of the intensification of the cold war as demonstrated by
the now-famous U-2 incident and the hardening attitude of oriental
communism.

In the words of an influential newspaper:

Wholly apart from the intellectual compulsions that now drive man
to move higher and higher into the high heavens, it seems clear
that our country can be niggardly in this field only at the risk of
being completely and forever outclassed by Russia--a gamble that
could have the most fearful political, economic, and military
consequences.[20]

Incidentally, there is another prestige factor to be considered. This is
what might be called the chain-reaction factor: the likelihood that
technological preeminence in the space field will attract top talent
from other parts of the world to the banner of the country which
develops it, and thus constantly nourish and replenish the efforts of
that country. It is a consideration which has not received general
attention, although it has been discussed before some of the world's
leading space scientists.[21]

Here again, as with the military situation, the Soviets are making every
effort to exploit their dexterity in space. They are pursuing the
prestige gambit directly and indirectly. In the first category, for
example, they give top priority to space exhibits in important public
forums--as their duplicate sputniks strategically placed at the world's
fair and the United Nations attest. Premier Khrushchev's delight in
making gifts to foreigners of miniature Soviet pennants similar to that
carried in Lunik II--which hit the Moon--is another instance.[22]

The indirect drive for prestige via space technology is far more
important. It has been described by a congressional committee as
follows:

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the Soviet Union in
the last several years has demonstrated a great skill in
coordinating its progress in missilery, its success in space
missions, and its foreign policy and world image. Shots seem to
have been timed to maximize the effects of visits of Soviet leaders
and to punctuate Soviet statements and positions in international
negotiations. This is not to equate their space activities with
hollow propaganda. Empty claims do not have a positive effect for
long. Nor is there any firm evidence that it has been possible for
political policymakers to call their shots at times inconsistent
with good scientific and technical needs. The conclusion is rather
that the many elements of scientific, technical, military,
political, and psychological policy are all weighed, and tests
which make a full contribution to such a combined strategy are
carried out and supported with appropriate publicity.[23]

There is also evidence that scientific endeavor by the Russians for
prestige purposes is having repercussions on internal policy. Great
emphasis is currently being placed on the demonstrable usefulness of
scientific effort--to the extent that Soviet colleges, research
institutions, examining boards, and academies of science have been
directed to be more exacting in conferring scientific degrees and
titles. Newness and usefulness are requisite, but, at the same time,
degrees may now be awarded for other than dissertations; inventions and
textbooks of major importance may also earn a degree for their
authors.[24]

Within the prestige context, it is true that the United States must
labor under certain handicaps because of the nature of its democratic
system.

No effort is made in the American space program to hide the failures
which result from its highly complex character. Our burnups, misfires,
explosions, fizzles, and lost or wayward vehicles are well publicized.
Those of the Soviet Union rarely are. Even though most nations are well
aware that the Russians must be having their troubles, too, the
appearance of uniform success fostered by the U.S.S.R. inevitably
contributes to an image of scientific superiority. In addition, the
Soviets have developed a habit of striving for spectacular "firsts,"
most of which undoubtedly are undertaken almost as much for prestige
reasons as for scientific ones.

[Illustration: FIGURE 4.--Symbolic of the American effort in
space is this Thor-Able rocket, shown here launching the Tiros weather
satellite into a near-perfect orbit. This same vehicle, which launched
the record-breaking 23 million-mile communication probe--Pioneer V--has
contributed enormously to U.S. prestige abroad.]

Still, the United States has not done badly from the prestige angle. So
far as the world's scientific fraternity is concerned, it may even be
well in the lead.

In the first 30 or so months following the opening of the space age, as
signaled by the launching of Sputnik I in October 1957, the United
States put 21 satellites into orbit out of 42 attempts. Two out of five
deep-space probes were successful. The degree of success for all major
launchings ran better than 50 percent. The American effort has been
based on a broad scope of inquiry and includes long-range
communications, weather reporting, navigation and surveillance vehicles,
as well as information-gathering satellites.

During the same period the Soviets launched four Earth satellites, one
deep-space probe, one lunar-impact probe and one satellite into a much
elongated Earth orbit which circled and photographed the Moon. Most of
their vehicles have been substantially heavier than those launched by
the United States, although complete information on their scientific
purposes and the result obtained has never been disclosed.

The world political value of such programs cannot be discounted. To the
extent that the welfare of the United States depends upon its stature in
the eyes of the rest of the world (which is believed considerable) and
to the extent that the scientific capability of the United States
influences such stature (which is also believed considerable) our space
venture has very marked practical utility. It may even mean the
difference between freedom and dictatorship, between survival and
oblivion.


SPACE AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR WAR

A natural outgrowth of the military and prestige facets of space
exploration is the question of whether this activity, in time, will
replace the forces which have historically driven nations into armed
conflict.

Any number of social scientists and historians have speculated that this
might occur. The theory is that the conquest of space may prove to be
the moral equivalent of war by substituting for certain material and
psychological needs usually supplied through war; that the absorption of
energies, resources, imagination, and aggressiveness in pursuit of the
space adventure may become an effective way of maintaining peace.

Put another way, nations might become "extroverted" to the point where
their urge to overcome the unknown would dwarf their historic desires
for power, wealth, and recognition--attributes which have so often led
to war in the past.

The fact that the United Nations, late in 1959, agreed to set up a
permanent Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space attests to the
hopes and potential of such a development.

Of course, whether this condition will actually develop is anybody's
guess. But in a world where brute force is becoming increasingly
dangerous and catastrophic, the bare possibility of such a result should
not be ignored by those who may be contemplating the values of space
exploration. It could be the highest value of them all.

[Illustration: FIGURE 5.--Today's assembly lines for
automobiles and aircraft are being supplemented by the growing
astronautics industry, here shown turning out capsules for manned space
flight.]

FOOTNOTES:

[8] Public Law 85-568, 85th Cong.

[9] H. Rept. 1633, 86th Cong., 2d sess., p. 6.

[10] Speech to the Supreme Soviet, Jan. 14, 1960.

[11] Associated Press dispatch, dateline London, Dec. 2, 1959.

[12] Scott, Brig. Gen. Robert L., USAF (retired), Space Age, February
1959, p. 63.

[13] Ostrander, Maj. Gen. Don R., USAF, before the American Rocket
Society, Los Angeles, May 10, 1960.

[14] Cox, Donald and Stoiko, Michael, Spacepower, John C. Winston Co.,
Philadelphia, 1958, p. 16.

[15] Saenger, Dr. Eugen, New Scientist, Sept. 10, 1959, p. 383.

[16] Boushey, Brig. Gen. H. A., USAF, Hearings before the House Select
Committee on Astronautics and Space Exploration, Apr. 23, 1958.

[17] Pierce, Dr. J. R., "The Dream World of Space," Industrial Research,
December 1959, p. 58.

[18] 5 supra.

[19] Allen, George V, testimony before the House Committee on Science
and Astronautics, Jan. 22, 1960.

[20] Editorial in the Washington Evening Star, Apr. 4, 1960.

[21] Remarks of Hon. Aubrey Jones, Minister of Supply, to the
International Astronautical Federation, London, Sept. 1, 1959.

[22] Associated Press dispatch, dateline Rangoon, Feb. 18, 1960.

[23] "Space, Missiles, and the Nation," report of the House Committee on
Science and Astronautics, May 18, 1960, p. 53.

[24] The New Scientist, Mar. 3, 1960, p. 547.




III. THE ECONOMIC VALUES


We in the United States believe that we have the world's highest
standard of living. Our current wealth, prosperity, consumer goods and
gross national product are at a peak hitherto unreached by any country.

Nevertheless, economists who see the steady preponderant outflow of
goods and capital from the United States and who study the rising rate
of economic capability in other countries can find little room for
complacence in the present status of things. They are also well aware of
the Soviet Union's announced intent of beating the United States at its
own game: economic expansion.

Military historians are likewise aware that even strong economies, when
they become static, do not guarantee safety. On the contrary, they seem
likely to induce a dangerous national apathy.

This syndrome is familiar in history. Carthage suffered from it.
Carthage enjoyed enormous prosperity and was flourishing when she
was destroyed by her Roman competitor. Much later, Rome had a gross
national product without precedence. Her wealth and splendor were
unsurpassed when the Vandals and Visigoths began their onslaughts.
Neither Rome's great engineering skills, its architectural
grandeur, its great laws, nor, in the last analysis, its gross
national product, could prevail against the barbarians. Their GNP
was negligible; nevertheless they ransacked the mighty Roman
Empire.

The gross national product is no insurance of survival. It is not a
sign of military strength, and indeed, it may not even be
sufficient for the economic battle.[25]

Thus from the point of view of economic stimulus and continued
commercial dynamism, space exploration should be--and is proving to
be--a godsend.


U.S. EXPENDITURES ON SPACE

It is impossible to arrive at accurate figures which might help indicate
the extent of this effort in dollars and cents. But we do know that the
U.S. Government is presently putting about $3.5 billion annually into
the research and development phases. How much more may be going into the
purchase of completed space hardware is difficult to say; certainly it
is a higher figure still. The National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, in presenting its 10-year plan to Congress recently,
indicated that this agency alone expects to average between $1.5 and $2
billion a year during the next decade.

The amount of effort going into space-related programs on the part of
private industry, measured in dollars, again can only be roughly
estimated. But it is a sizable figure and is known to be growing. It may
amount to half the governmental research and development outlay.

These figures add up to a very important segment of the national
economy, and the fact that they represent a highly active and
progressive segment is particularly heartening to the economic experts
of the Nation.


THE SPREAD OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS

One of the most useful characteristics of the space program is that its
needs "spread across the entire industrial spectrum--electronics,
metals, fuels, ceramics, machinery, plastics, instruments, textiles,
thermals, cryogenics, and a thousand other areas."[26] The benefits from
space exploration thus have a way of filtering into almost every area of
the American economy, either directly or indirectly. "Perhaps the
greatest economic treasure is the advanced technology required for more
and more difficult space missions. This new technology is advancing at a
meteoric rate. Its benefits are spreading throughout our whole
industrial and economic system."[27]

A graphic example of the manner in which the technological and economic
benefits from the space program can grow may be seen from the
development of the X-15. This rocket craft, designed to "fly" beyond the
Earth's atmosphere at altitudes up to 100 miles, is the product of 400
different firms and contractors.

Inasmuch as other nations, those which generally have lagged behind the
United States in technical know-how, are now rapidly bringing their
technology up to date--this windfall from our space program is
especially opportune. It is providing the incentive to American industry
to remain in the world's technological van. And it is emphasizing that
economic leadership is a dynamic thing, that U.S. mass-production
techniques which have enabled the Nation to compete so well in foreign
markets are no longer, of themselves, sufficient guarantee of superior
economic position.

While America's space exploration program, on a formal basis, came into
being as recently as October 1958, its impact on the national economy
has probably been sharper than that of any single new program ever
conceived. For there are now at least 5,000 companies or research
organizations engaged in the missile-space industry. And more than 3,200
different space-related products have been required and are being
produced to date.[28]

One can only speculate on the economic effect which the space program is
having on investments or on investors who have no other connection with
it. It seems significant, however, that the stock market pages in recent
months have come to devote a good deal of attention to "space issues."
Financially speaking, space has thus become a major category. That it
has done so in such a short period would seem to have marked
implications for the future.

In brief, space exploration is becoming almost an industry in itself,
and there are those who believe it destined to become the largest
industrial spur in the Nation before too many years have gone by.

One expert, an experienced hand not only in astronautics but in the
business world as well, describes the outlook in this fashion: "A great
industrial change is taking place in the United States. The aircraft
industry, which long considered missiles as a small department, now
finds itself becoming a part of the large missile and space flight
industry. It is an elemental evolution. An industrial change is upon us
comparable to the advent of mercantilism."[29] He has predicted that
within a decade or so the astronautics industry will be larger than the
automotive industry of the entire world.

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